Roscongress Foundation releases study on ASEAN

The experts of the Roscongress Foundation has prepared the ASEAN Economy: Investment Boom and Country Specialists analytical digest, analyzing how the ASEAN’s member nations are integrating into the world economy in this time of global fragmentation. Particular attention has been devoted to the outlook for Russian cooperation with the bloc in different spheres.

The study has been timed to coincide with the ‘World of Opportunities: Russia–ASEAN’ International Business Forum, which is scheduled to be held in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur on 26–27 November 2024. The Forum will provide an important opportunity to engage in meaningful discussions and shine the spotlight on issues related to strengthening Russia’s commercial and investment ties with ASEAN across a number of areas, with particular emphasis on cooperation in the economy and finance, the oil and gas and chemical industries, transport, technology, innovation and information security, science and education, medicine, tourism, and the humanitarian sphere. The Forum is being organized by Roscongress International.

The combined population of ASEAN is almost 680 million people, and its GDP grew at an average annual rate of 4.5% between 2010 and 2023. ASEAN is expected to become the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2030, with combined trade expected to increase by USD 1.2 trillion over the next ten years.

ASEAN adheres to a Centrality concept that drives engagement with external partners while building a regional architecture in spite of differences in economic development, territorial size, and interests. In this time of geopolitical and geo-economic fragmentation, ASEAN is dedicated to unity and strategically positioned to strengthen ties with the world’s great powers.

ASEAN’s combined GDP grew by 4.1% in 2023, with nominal GDP reaching USD 3.8 trillion. It is Asia’s third largest economy and the fifth largest in the world after the US, China, Germany, and Japan.

The International Monetary Fund has predicted an acceleration in the growth of ASEAN’s GDP from 4.6% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025 on the strength of domestic demand and exports. The most pronounced growth is expected in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, with more subdued economic activity forecast for Thailand.

A number of factors have contributed to ASEAN’s growth, including a sustained increase in private consumption in some of Southeast Asia’s largest consumer markets, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia. Significant public investment in infrastructure is also expected to increase the overall growth rate of domestic demand, even as multinationals diversify their supply chains and Southeast Asia becomes an increasingly important destination for foreign direct investment.

Russian interaction with ASEAN covers a number of areas and has been growing steadily in importance, especially since Russia’s economic turn to the East. Although restrictions resulting from Western sanctions have posed problems with logistics and mutual settlements and put a damper on potential interaction, the parties have nevertheless agreed to develop and sign a Russia–ASEAN Strategic Programme for Trade and Investment Cooperation in 2025 on the basis of the Trade and Investment Cooperation Roadmap for 2021–2025. The programme will include new areas of cooperation, a clear goal to increase trade turnover between Russia and ASEAN, and a list of key projects for every area of cooperation with indicators of effectiveness.

Interaction between Russia and ASEAN promises to be a central topic at the upcoming ‘World of Opportunities: Russia–ASEAN’ International Business Forum.  The event programme can be found on the website.

The full text of the analytical review has been published on the Roscongress Foundation website.